A ll new technologies start out in life as immature , limited versions of themselves that nevertheless brim with possibilities . Inventions and new applications tied to a new technology are often less focused , less predictable , and more likely to disappear into the mists of history - like using those newfangled round stones with a hole in the middle as hats instead of putting them on the bottoms of wheelbarrows ( one assumes ) and , more recently , Betamax . As technologies develop successful use cases and markets begin to develop , they reach maturity . Then , anywhere from a decade to a few centuries later , they ’ re about as prone to radical evolution as a sea sponge , or the pushbike .