Jody Visser & Jennifer Aubert Parker of Convera Analyse Global Economy & FX Rate Influences for 2024
WATCH NOW
the second quarter of 2023 dropped to a record low .
Meanwhile , the share of small US firms reporting it is difficult to access loans rose to a 10-year high in May 2023 , and the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey ( SLOOS ) showed that US banks ’ tighter lending standards have breached the threshold that in the past was consistent with a recession . This may come into sharper focus once lag effects have run their course .
And yet – to add further fuel to economic uncertainty – while credit may be tightening and bond prices surging , global stocks have bucked the trend seen from other economic indicators that point toward recession – appreciating over 15 % year-to-date . US Nasdaq stocks are particularly noteworthy in their defiance of expectations , surging 40 % in large part thanks to the emergence of AI products on the market .
With global stocks healthy , one may assume this lays the foundation for stability in global trade . But is this the case ? Yes and no . The value of cross-border global trade , much like stock markets , defied expectations of a downturn . Although global cross-border collapses were feared amid the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic , trade grew 24 % between 2019 and 2022 and compared favourably with the longrun average of around 6 % per annum since 1995 . Nevertheless , a thriving global crossborder trade market does not necessarily rule out volatility , particularly regarding FX rates . fintechmagazine . com 47