CONVERA
“Most forward-looking indicators – like the Purchasing Managers Index , the Conference Board ’ s Economic Index , and yield curves across government bonds – point to high recession probabilities in 2024 , while backward-looking indicators continue to perform well ”
BORIS KOVACEVIC GLOBAL MACRO STRATEGIST
For instance , would another Trump administration roll back any of the severe economic sanctions on Moscow that ensued after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 ?
Such is the polarity in today ’ s political sphere that the impact of elections on the economy is arguably more unpredictable than ever .
History backs this up . Since 1980 , only six of the US ’ s Congressional 21 sessions ( 29 %) have been led by a unified government , leading to higher policy uncertainty .
Add to that Donald Trump ’ s 2016 election win , the US-China trade war and pandemic-led economic policy responses , and the polarity only grows . The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has already reached record levels near 435 in 2020 ( versus 196 in 2010 ) and it has never really normalised to pre-pandemic levels .
Such political conditions are not constrained to the US alone either – they are global .
Take the UK , where the British pound collapsed in 2022 because of then- Prime Minister Liz Truss ’ poorly received economic recovery plan . And the UK could see further economic shifts in 2025 at the time of its next general election .
That is if it does happen in 2025 . There are suggestions current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak could pull this timeline forward should the UK economy remain on a resilient path . And should the British public vote in the Labour Party after more than a decade out , there is a chance this could alter UK-EU trade and business relations .
The scope for election-driven economic uncertainty is everywhere in 2024 , with key elections happening in Mexico , South Africa and the EU . There is
50 October 2023